Starmer's Supporters Begin 'Stop Andy Burnham' Drive to Block Manchester Mayor's Commons Comeback

Loyalists of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly kicked off a concerted effort to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a comeback to parliament. This action follows the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has sparked an upcoming by-election.

Serious Hurdles in the Candidate Selection Process

A number of members on the party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have apparently suggested it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection process. This is largely due to the significant presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are desperate to avoid any potential leadership challenge.

The Labour party machine is said to have swung into action following the revelation of the MP's planned departure, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable financial cost and political risk of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his national ambitions. Last year, he prompted consternation within No 10 and among senior ministers when he remarked that many MPs had urged him to run for the party leadership.

It has long been believed that he is seeking a return to parliament to potentially stand for the party leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, supporters of the Mayor have warned against overstating the extent of any planning, suggesting he is passionate about his job as mayor and would only re-enter national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.

Current Climate and Public Approval

Against a backdrop of polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only prominent Labour personality with consistently positive public approval ratings.

If Mr. Burnham decide to run, several obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then win the by-election against competition from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any potential leadership challenge.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

Senior Labour figures have said that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already under way, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally commented that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to stop talking about possible contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

Figures on the committee have reportedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated £500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.

A number of sources also shared concerns about Reform UK potentially win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.

Union Influence and Democratic Concerns

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. It is also possible the body could enforce an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.

However, a supporter warned against presuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.

The unions hold a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently remaining quiet, sources suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The seat in question holds a considerable Labour lead. However, Reform is expected to launch a significant challenge, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from independent candidates.

If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by some on the backbenches.

The resigning MP stated he was stepping down due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He also remains under a standards inquiry related to his membership in an offensive online group.