Everyday Homicides in Mexico Decline 37% During Claudia Sheinbaum, According to Government Figures

The typical figure of daily murders each month in Mexico has dropped by 37% since President Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, as stated by fresh administrative data. However, public safety experts have warned that homicide figures could fail to signal better national security.

Marked Reduction in Per-Day Figures

Officials reported an average of nearly 55 killings a day in November compared with roughly 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum assumed the leadership in September of last year. This announcement was provided by the chief of the nation's federal public security system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's daily news conference on Tuesday.

“The outcome in killings that have been recorded during these months is very significant,” Claudia Sheinbaum stated, adding that last month the least figure of homicides were documented for any November in the past decade.

Recent Context and Government Strategy

Violent cartel internal conflicts, coupled with the administration's heavily militarised operations to combat the cartels, have caused Mexico’s murder numbers rise sharply in recent years. The figure reached a record high of 36,773 homicides in 2020, as reported by the nation's national statistics office.

That meant Mexico a homicide figure more than four times higher than that of the United States. Since then, homicides have been on the decline, dropping to 33,550 last year. Claudia Sheinbaum has attributed her public safety plan for an ostensibly more pronounced reduction in homicides in the current year.

At a press conference in August, the President stated: “We have a plan, there is oversight of the plan, and there is detailed monitoring town by town in some cases. The strategy functions. And we have to persist at it daily.”

The key pillars of Sheinbaum’s safety strategy involve:

• Strengthening Mexico’s national guard.
• Improving intelligence and investigative efforts.
• Enhanced coordination between various agencies.

Expert Skepticism and Data Limitations

But, security researchers urged caution that relying on homicide data to draw a conclusion of improved security was flawed. This is notably true in light of the uptick in different crimes such as abductions.

“That would be excellent news if this were a reduction, but I think we shouldn't just concentrate on the murder data and think: ‘Alright, great,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexico's criminal organizations. “I would be guardedly hopeful.”

As reported by the policy analysis thinktank Mexico Evalúa, murders overall declined by over 20% in the initial 10 months of the current year versus the same timeframe the previous year. But, disappearances have gone up by 15% and in some regions have increased by as much as 200%.

“Data on homicides is not valid for estimating the situation of insecurity,” said Armando Vargas, a security analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have law enforcement and prosecutors who lack the resources or the will to correctly identify and classify bodies. Second, organized [criminals] … have the means to mask violent acts through disappearances.”

Vargas pointed out that using month-to-month averages of everyday killings was also problematic because it may obscure periods when there were especially spiking levels of killings.

“Relying on the daily average renders high peaks of violence less visible,” he concluded.

Arrests and Confiscations as Metrics of Progress

An area where the government can point to the success of its safety plan is on detentions and confiscations. Almost 40,000 suspects were apprehended between October 2024 and November 2025 for major crimes, according to official figures. Over 20,000 firearms were taken and 311 tons of drugs seized.

“Trump can't accuse President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because the reality is she is accomplishing a lot with these many thousands of detentions, many thousands of confiscations, and all the operational weakening of criminal groups. It’s very in political terms beneficial,” commented Vargas.

Persistent Violence and Public Anger

Yet notwithstanding these efforts, Mexico remains plagued by high bloodshed, with a number of regions in the grip of cartel-related bloodshed. In the previous month there was a prominent killing of a popular mayor in the region of Michoacan, among 10 local leaders killed in the last 12 months.

Weeks after, thousands of youth demonstrated in Mexico City and across the country to show their anger at corruption and cartel violence.

“The government shares [data] in a way to build a picture of security. From a political standpoint it’s highly effective, from a social perspective it’s highly problematic,” the analyst said.