Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the nation and caused disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an highly polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in academia but scarcely any politicians or campaigners want to engage even with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. Each authors two pieces that seek neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments range over identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens say they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has has important lessons to learn from the other's positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
